Soda ash prices have been falling since January 2017, and so far the average price of light soda ash has fallen by about 200 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash has fallen by about 50-100 yuan/ton. Since January 2017, soda ash prices have been falling endlessly. It is understood that the price index of light soda ash in the East China market fell from 2100 in January to the current 1900, down about 9.5%; heavy soda ash The average price index fell from 2150 in January to the current 2100, down about 2.4%, as a result of the strong demand for the downstream glass industry. At present, the soda ash industry's operating rate is higher than 90%, at full load start state, the industry inventory total of about 600,000 tons.
Downstream enterprise resistance is the main reason of soda ash price drop. Since the price of soda ash has been hovering around 1400 yuan/ton since 2012, downstream customers have been accustomed to this price. After the fourth quarter of last year, prices soared, many companies have created a backlash. According to the information we have learned, many printing and dyeing, glass enterprises have taken a combination of prices. In the production of procurement, they have taken the "zero inventory" such an extreme way, with the use of, on-demand procurement. In this way, although in a short period of time to allow some soda companies to compromise, forcing prices to fall, but from the production management perspective, "zero inventory" for the production enterprises is extremely dangerous. We believe that such an extreme way to allow soda ash prices to fall temporarily, and can not change the soda ash at the supply and demand level has reached a tight balance of the fact. Therefore, downstream enterprises combined with lower prices can work in a short time, in the long run, soda ash price upward direction will not change.
The price trend of soda ash is different in different regions, which mainly depends on the industry concentration of soda industry in the region. Although soda ash prices generally fall, but the degree of decline in various regions is very different. Generally speaking, the area with higher concentration of industry, such as Sichuan, Shandong, northeast, and so on, prices fall back more slowly. and small factories lined up in Jiangsu, Anhui and other places, the price of soda ash fall in comparison with a larger.
In this round, the price of the joint-alkali enterprises is less damaged than the ammonia-alkali method. Because the "by-product" of the joint alkali method is ammonium chloride, the price of ammonium chloride increases by 80-100 yuan/ton in February, which effectively alleviates the negative impact of the soda ash price. And the "by-product" of the ammonia alkali method is calcium chloride, its price did not rise. Can be seen, the price fell to the ammonia alkali manufacturers hit the biggest.
To sum up: Although the price of soda ash in a short period of time, but in the general direction, still can not change its price upward trend.