December due to the implementation of reduced production, Brent oil remained hovering around $55/bbl, entering March U.S. oil drilling continued to increase, shale oil production also accelerated recovery, the U.S. crude oil inventory innovation high oil price shocks downward, 171-quarter Brent crude oil average price year-on-year, Quarter-on-quarter Rose 55%, 6.9% reported in 54.6 U.S. dollars/barrels. The total net profit of the basic chemical industry in the first quarter of 2017 is expected to improve significantly, the chain also continued to improve, some of the basic chemical enterprises in the first quarter of 17 years. According to our tracking 38 major basic chemical companies in the first quarter of 2017 estimated weighted average EPS of 0.20 yuan, a sharp rise of 126%, the chain Rose 11%. 17 A quarterly net profit is expected to increase significantly in the sub industry mainly MDI, pesticides, fertilizers, PTA, polyester filament, vitamins, sweeteners, etc., the larger the decline of the sub-industry is mainly potash.
MDI short-term supply tight pattern unchanged, 2017 1 listing price monthly rise, Mdi aniline price difference to maintain high, 2017 1mdi aniline average price difference reached 19190 yuan/ton, compared with 2016 chain increase 24.9%. Although 2017 is expected to have the Middle East 400,000 tons/year and Shanghai Lian Heng 240,000 tons/year of new devices, but the product mainly in the second half of the launch and load lifting takes time, the actual new production is not high, lower than demand growth. High barriers, high investment allows the industry to maintain the oligopoly pattern, long-term maintenance of high profitability. It is estimated that Wanhua chemical 1q 170ps is 0.96 yuan; the Cheonan explosion again ignited the rise in the price of malt phenol, the new sweetener, melamine and sucralose prices continue to rise, the 1q 170ps is expected to 0.35 yuan industrial.
Polyester filament boom since 16, the second half of the apparent rebound in 17, the industry's new production capacity growth rate is lower than demand, the pattern of supply and demand will be further improved, long silk boom is expected to maintain high. From Px-Pta polyester filament industry chain, PX global production than expected, the price difference will remain stable in the high, PTA industry reshuffle to suppress the profitability of manufacturers, oil prices rebound industrial chain surplus to long silk end transfer, the medium-term bullish PTA boom. 1q 17 Rong Sheng Petrochemical EPS0 is expected to be 25 yuan, Heng Yat Petrochemical EPS0.19 Yuan, Tong Kun shares 0.27 Yuan.
Environmental protection strictly check the accumulation of overseas replenishment to bring the pesticide industry recovery, the bulk of pesticide products glyphosate, glyphosate, imidacloprid prices show a sharp rise in the related enterprises net profit rose sharply. Supply-side, the next 2-3 years of strict environmental protection, the Environmental Protection Supervision Group will also be strict inspection of 15 provinces, small disorderly production capacity is expected to clear, pesticide concentration is expected to further improve. From the demand side, the two-quarter domestic pesticide peak season, the main products are expected to remain high prices, is expected to two or three quarter pesticide business performance continued optimism. We expect the Jiangshan shares 1q 170ps for 0.12 yuan, Xin ' an shares 1q 170ps 0.09 yuan (a turnround), Yang Nong Chemical 1q 170ps for 0.37 yuan, Evergreen shares 1q 170ps for 0.13 yuan.
Grain prices stabilized in the first quarter of 17, and the demand for spring plowing was stable elemental fertilizer continued to rise in January-February, March, a slight decline in sales of fertilizer companies led to a year-on-year increase in net profits, the forecast Hualu 1q 170ps for 0.24 Yuan, the 1q 17 net profit margin, profit about 15 million, cloud-holding 1q 170ps 0.08 yuan, Kim Jung-1q 170ps to 0.08 yuan.