With the total amount of paper in China entering a balanced development period, the paper industry will enter the accelerated integration period. Paper production to maintain low speed growth, the industry's internal structure will continue to optimize. The paper industry accelerates the integration process, the enterprise profit polarization, the advantageous enterprise profit ability unceasingly strengthens, the disadvantage enterprise gradually is eliminated.
In the future, the output growth rate of China's paper industry will continue to be higher than the consumption growth, while the supply side reform and environmental supervision are increasing, so that the industry in environmental protection and market pressure, into the accelerated integration period. Through the elimination of backward production capacity and mergers and acquisitions, large-scale paper factory will rely on the size and cost advantages of the year to increase its market share, industry concentration will continue to increase; Through the transformation and upgrading and "go out" and other ways, paper enterprises across the border development, at the same time the high end of the paper industry development, high-quality products will squeeze the low quality products market, high-end paper type squeeze low-end paper market, differentiation, customization, personalized products will increase.
Policy Reverse Industry optimization upgrade
From 2010 to 2015, our country has 37.31 million tons of capacity of paper factory because it does not meet the requirements of eco-environmental protection by the government departments ordered to shut down, the relevant environmental protection policies have been implemented by the industry upgrade.
China plans to "Thirteen-Five" during the period again shut down 8 million tons-10 million tons of backward paper production capacity, the main elimination of the current cut-off enterprises or environmental protection does not meet the requirements of enterprises, is expected to strict law enforcement inspection, will have more than 100 enterprises were closed. In the long run, the demand for wood pulp will continue to increase as more and more modern machines replace this part of the backward capacity.
Since 2016, eco-environmental protection has become a new focus. The Ministry of Environmental Protection in governance, from the focus on the EIA to the actual emissions, from focusing on the pollution industry to the thermal power paper enterprises issued sewage permits, from the supervision frequency to the implementation of supervision, can experience the government's determination to govern the environment, the future strict enforcement is the trend.
In the context of the supply side reform, the "All along the way" national policy, the paper industry ushered in an optimized upgrade. The supply side reform encourages the enhancement of quality, the paper industry is expected to 2 million tons of imported paper, some will gradually be replaced by domestic. To production capacity will eliminate zombie enterprises, for the advantage of the manufacturers to free up market space; China's layout of the "area all the way", to encourage the advantages of capacity to go out, which will drive the global new market pulp consumption. In 2014, China exported 3.987 million tons of paper and paper products to countries and regions along the "area". China's exports of pulp and paper-making equipment in 2015 amounted to $1.222 billion, up 15.51% from a year earlier.
Paper production sales will continue to grow
From the global market, paper and paperboard demand will continue to shrink in the future, China is the main driving force for the growth of global paper and paperboard demand. Demand for the United States, Western Europe and Japan is expected to grow at around 1% in the year to 2020, while demand for paper and paperboard in developing countries will continue to increase, with China and Eastern Europe, Latin America and other countries growing at around 3% annually in 2020. From 2015 to 2020, global paper and paperboard demand growth of 27.24 million tons, 65% of the growth from China, China remains the world's paper and paperboard demand growth of the main driving force. From 2015 to 2020, the global demand for bleached goods pulp growth of 6.7 million tons, 70% growth from China. At the same time, 2015-2020, China's waste paper pulp demand will maintain a growth rate of 3%.
As the demand for economic development, China's paper production sales will continue to grow, but not as GDP growth. Thanks to the net purchase and the emerging logistics, wrapping paper is the main driving force of the growth of the production volume in China. China's paper production is expected to continue to increase by 13 million tonnes by 2020, with 70% of the growth coming from packaging paper.
From 2007 onwards, our country has developed into a net exporter by net paper importers. 2016 years ago in the three quarter, China's paper exports increased by about 20% year-on-year, output surplus will promote export volume to maintain continued growth. China's pulp and paper enterprises overseas investment will also increase, China's enterprises will be more involved in global competition.
The situation of pulping industry is grim
In the future, global pulp will continue to expand. If new production capacity can be put into production on schedule, there will be a glut of global wide-leaf pulp supply in 2018. Wood pulp enterprise All will increase, domestic non-wood pulp manufacturers or will appear large-scale downtime.
Since the fourth quarter of 2016, China's imports of waste paper, wood pulp market has been a supply of time. The price of waste paper and wood pulp soared, and the spot price of broad-leaf pulp rose by 30%. In view of current imbalance in supply and demand, the commodity pulp situation in the short term remained good and the price of wood pulp would continue to rise in the fourth quarter of 2017. Although the price of wood pulp has soared, the output of wood pulp and non wood pulp has not increased obviously due to environmental protection and capacity limitation.
Since the fourth quarter of 2016, China's finished paper market, cardboard, corrugated paper and other paper types appear paper shortage. It is expected that China's finished paper will continue to be driven by soaring prices of raw materials, devaluation of the exchange rate, backward production capacity, rising freight rates and inflation, and prices continue to rise.